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a CANADIAN SECURITY INTELLIGENCE SERVICE publication
March 1995
Unclassified
Editors Note:
Once again we are pleased to provide our readers with summaries of all recent COMMENTARY issues. Requests for further information or for back issues should be addressed to: Editor, Commentary, c/o CSIS, P.O. Box 9732, Station "T", Ottawa, Ontario K1G 4G4.
Disclaimer: Publication of an article in the COMMENTARY series does not imply CSIS authentication of the information nor CSIS endorsement of the author's views.
March 1995
Approximately one year ago, Commentary #44 dealt with the challenges facing a new, post-apartheid South Africa; and concluded with a prognosis of cautious optimism. As South Africa approaches the first anniversary of the dramatic events that culminated in the election of the Mandela Government of National Unity, we once again welcome the authors' views in this interim report. March 1995. Authors: Mr. Duncan Edmonds & Mr. Allister Sparks
In this issue, the author comments on post-Cold War terrorism in general and puts forth some very specific views on terrorism in the Middle East, threats from the extreme right, and issue-specific terrorism. He concludes with five principles "which have the best track record in reducing terrorism". January 1995. Author: Mr. Paul Wilkinson
Chiapas, NAFTA, Colosio, Zedillo, Zapatista — all names that have recently entered the international lexicon during an extraordinary year in Mexico's history. And to the questions of political stability which these terms raise is added the urgent issue of economic stability, following the dramatic devaluation of the peso in recent weeks, and the hastily arranged $18 billion line of credit offered to Mexico as part of a plan to deal with its economic crisis. The author puts these events in context, and ventures both political and economic predictions for the near future. December 1994. Author: An analyst in the Analysis & Production Branch of CSIS
The fact that the horror of open warfare has continued for over five years in what was Yugoslavia cannot be explained away by the facile notion that long-suppressed ethnic tensions finally erupted when the Soviet Union collapsed. As the author of this month's Commentary points out, a principal reason for the failure to halt, if not avert, the war may have been the lack of an agreement amongst the major powers as to what constitutes a new European security architecture. March 1995. Author: Mr. Christopher Anstis
One of the main concerns of this issue of Commentary is to provide a coherent explanation for the "apparent explosion of conflicts centered on ethnicity" , particularly since the end of the Cold War. One theory holds that "tribal" conflicts are a sudden release of those previously held in check during the bi-polar superpower tensions of the last 40 years; another, that "ethnic identities are perhaps more fundamental and persistent than loyalties to larger social units". Readers will perhaps be surprised at Dr. Gurr's conclusions not only as to the causes, but also the venues and the solutions to these conflicts. November 1994. Author: Dr. Ted Robert Gurr (Presidential Address to the International Studies Association Annual Meeting held on 1 April 1994 in Washington, D.C., reproduced here with the kind permission of the author and the editors of International Studies Quarterly.)
One year after the historic "Declaration of Principles" was signed in Washington, current developments in the Middle East continue to dominate the headlines and of course, the hearts and minds of millions of inhabitants of that region. The author provides a context for these recent events, and outlines three major hurdles still facing the peace process. October 1994. Author: Dr. William Millward
The political and economic uncertainty that prevails today in all the republics of the former Soviet Union has provided auspicious conditions for crime proliferation. It is not surprising, therefore, that organized crime has become an increasingly severe and pervasive problem, particularly in the Russian Federation, the largest of the successor republics. Some of this activity is now spilling into Western Europe and North America, where Canada is not immune. September 1994. Authors: Dr. Leonid Maximenkov & Mr. C. Namiesniowski
Environmental concerns have gone well past the status of being just another "issue" among many that compete for daily media attention. The environment, as one commentator put it bluntly, is where we live. In this months Commentary, the author draws attention to the ominous fact that environmental issues have also entered "the list of threats to national and international security" and are now "central factors in a self-sustaining cycle of impoverishment, repression and mass movement" . The author concludes with some examples of how international mechanisms and traditional "intelligence" may be brought to bear on an increasingly global problem. August 1994. Author: Mr. Berel Rodal
In his second and final paper in a series, the author moves the discussion of economic espionage forward from his earlier Commentary #32, and provides an overview and analysis of the current state of the debate on economic espionage. July 1994. Author: Mr. Samuel Porteous
The relationship between intelligence and policy can elicit different answers, depending on how the question is posed: How, traditionally, has the government made use of intelligence? How does it use intelligence now? How should it use intelligence? Particularly since the end of the Cold War, Western democracies and their intelligence services have been carefully re-examining the question in all its forms. June 1994. Author: Mr. Blair Seaborn
In February 1990, F. W. de Klerk made a dramatic announcement to South Africa's parliament that symbolized for racism what the fall of the Berlin Wall meant for communism: Nelson Mandela was to be released; the African National Congress would be legalized; and the government would begin negotiations leading to a national constitution with equal rights for all South Africans. What is not generally known is that for years prior to his announcement, the South African government had been carefully and secretly discussing the power-sharing arrangements with Mr. Mandela, in preparation for his eventual release. We have recently witnessed the initial results of this remarkable, negotiated revolution. In this issue, the author outlines a number of difficult challenges to President Mandela's new government. May 1994. Author: Mr. Duncan Edmonds
A number of factors combine in any assessment of potential Chinese immigration to North America: current economic and social conditions in China; the recent massive internal migration from the rural to the coastal regions; uncertain political succession; and post-1997 Hong Kong are among those discussed below. In particular, the author examines illegal immigration by sea as an indication of the growing desperation of thousands of Chinese. April 1994. Author: Mr. Paul George
Developments in modern China can be characterized in three ways: enormous, contradictory and rapid. Numerous peasant revolts, a rising crime rate, an inequitable tax system and uncertain political succession after Deng Xiaoping all constitute sources of significant potential instability. Yet China's recent economic advances have been spectacular, due in part to the impressive behaviour of private enterprise initiatives in the villages and townships. An enormous labour pool has led to increased foreign exports, and China's trade balances are improving, particularly with the West. As the author here points out, we are witnessing at once an industrial revolution of unparalleled proportions, the emergence of a so-called socialist/market economy and the release of forces in the civilian society that the current régime is finding very difficult to control. April 1994. Author: An analyst in the Analysis and Production Branch of CSIS
Nine years after Mikhail Gorbachev came to power in the former Soviet Union (March 1985) and released the genies of glasnost and perestroika, his successor, Boris Yeltsin, finds himself struggling to contain other forces he himself released (some from prison), and is facing another spectre in the form of an extreme nationalist. As the author points out, the search is far from over, as a broad, domestic consensus on the future of the Russian State has yet to form. March 1994. Author: Mr. Conrad Namiesniowski
The balance — if it can be called that — between the IRA's constitutional goals of "revolutionary armed struggle" and political actions has tipped dramatically during the last decade in favour of the former. This is especially true where Irish Republican terrorism "out-of-theatre" is concerned; ie., the conduct of terrorist operations in the UK and Europe. The author explores the recent history of this phenomenon and provides a detailed account of this latest phase of Republican terrorism: the "Armalite and the Ballot Box" . February 1994. Author: An analyst with the Analysis and Production Branch of CSIS.
Since the author first dealt with the leadership structures in Iran (Commentary #20, April 1992), a number of forces, and a number of deaths among the senior ranks, prompt a closer look at the hierarchy of power in Iran. The departure of the old guard raises central questions not only of succession, but of who decides. January 1994. Author: Dr. William Millward
The wave of immigration from the former Soviet Bloc westward since 1991 is a relatively unknown phenomenon in North America. However, as the author points out, in 1992 alone "about six million people were displaced or prone to migrate from Eastern Europe" . Where they go, how they get there, and the problems created by this unprecedented mobility form the themes of this issue of Commentary. January 1994. Authors: Dr. Allan Kagedan & Dr. Opalski
This is the second in a continuing series on the relationship between the broad concept of national security and a nations economy - a relationship which, as the author points out, attracted little attention in North America until recently. In this issue, the author focuses on a particularly controversial aspect of economic security — "equity" — and examines security implications stemming from the economic crisis facing the developed world. December 1993. Author: Mr. Samuel Porteous
The views expressed herein are those of the author, who may be contacted by writing to :
CSIS P.O.Box 9732 Postal Station T Ottawa, Ontario K1G 4G4 FAX: (613) 842-1312
ISSN 1192-277X
Catalogue JS73-1/55
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