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a CANADIAN SECURITY INTELLIGENCE SERVICE publication
November 1993
Unclassified
Editors Note:
In response to a number of requests, we are pleased to issue the following summaries of previous COMMENTARY publications. Readers who wish to obtain back issues or future ones may write to the Editor, Commentary, c/o CSIS, P.O. Box 9732, Station "T", Ottawa, Ontario K1G 4G4. COMMENTARY is also regularly distributed through the Government of Canada's "Canada Communications Group" Depository Program, 45 Sacré-Coeur Blvd., Rm. B-1001, Hull, P.O., K1A 0S9.
Disclaimer: Publication of an article in the COMMENTARY series does not imply CSIS authentication of the information nor CSIS endorsement of the author's views.
November, 1993.
In the first in a series on the remarkable developments in the region, the author provides a detailed analysis of the specifics of the recent Israeli-PLO accord. October, 1993. Author: Dr. W. Millward
Since the 1960s Japan has rapidly become a leader in the development of science and technology. The various methods of achieving this rapid advance through efficient use of information management are described. August 1993. Author: Dr. V. Ujimoto
An overview of the world-wide trade in armaments, the pros and cons of arms transfers and Canada's role in trade and control of the industry. July 1993. Author: Mr. Ron Purver
An analysis of the extent of the problem of economic espionage and its impact on Canada. The discussion concludes with the arguments for and against government involvement in economic espionage. May 1993. Author: Mr. Samuel Porteous
The second part of the series examines the nature of the threat from the Islamic revival. The discussion centres on three trends: the political successes of the mainstream elements, radicalization as a result of repression and an Iranian network . April 1993. Author: Dr. Wm. Millward
The first of this two-part series examines the roots and goals of the Islamic revival that has been taking place in the Middle East and North Africa, and the differences between mainstream and militant Islamism. April 1993. Author: Dr. Wm. Millward
An overview of the conflicting interests and territorial claims of the diverse parties to the violence in the Balkans. March 1993. Author: Dr. Mihailo Crnobrnja
After 14 months, the structure of the CIS is still uncertain. In this article, the current situation is examined with a focus on the opposing minimalist and maximalist views for the future. March 1993 Author: Dr. Allan Kagedan
The five newly independent states of Central Asian are struggling to define their roles in the region and internationally. What are the chances that political and economic instability in the region will produce conditions favourable to the emergence of five Islamic fundamentalist states on the Iranian model? Nov. 1992. Authors: Drs. Kagedan & Millward
The author analyses the forces that will contribute to the possible success or failure of current democratization movements world-wide and contemplates alternative governance scenarios. Sept. 1992. Author: Dr. R. Henderson
A discussion of four factors that will influence the new round of Middle East peace talks: the Israeli settlements, the strength of the governing coalition, the influence of extremists on both sides and the outcome of the American presidential election. Sept. 1992. Author: Dr. Wm. Millward
The Soviet KGB has been succeeded by the Russian Security Ministry (MBR). What will be the function of this new intelligence service and how will it be controlled? June 1992. Author: Dr. Allan Kagedan
A discussion of the state of the Cuban economy and political structure since the withdrawal of Soviet aid. Three options for the future of Cuba are offered: Castro's resignation, the death of the Cuban leader, or an attempted coup. June 1992. Author: Mr. Charles Svoboda
In 1979, diplomatic relations were cut off between Egypt and Iran when the former signed the Camp David Accord. Three obstacles to the renewal of diplomatic relations are discussed: Egypts commitment to peace with Israel, apprehension over the Islamic factor and an inherent distrust of Iran's regional intentions. May 1992. Author: Dr. Wm. Millward
An examination of the increase in militant activism in support of animal rights. Apr. 1992. Author: Dr. G. D. (Tim) Smith
Since 1979 the legitimacy of the religious leadership of Iran has been questioned. The author explores whether the legitimate authority of the present régime stems from the support of the people of Iran or from religious authority. Apr. 1992. Author: Dr. Wm. Millward
In the wake of the Cold War, newly industrializing countries that previously depended on a supply of technology from either Western or communist allies are now being forced to look elsewhere. The author predicts that many NICs will begin to use their intelligence services to gain access to restricted technologies and international commercial intelligence. Mar. 1992. Author: Dr. R. Henderson
An examination of the roots of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno Karabakh and the prospects for peace. Mar. 1992. Author: Dr. Allan Kagedan
A compilation of the proceedings of conferences attended by two strategic analysts. In the first, Dr. Smith describes the discussions held in Great Britain on governments options in dealing with international terrorism. In the second, Dr. Kagedan relates the proceedings of a conference on developments in Europe and the reaction of the American military and foreign policy establishments. The third report is Dr. Millwards description of being hijacked on his way to an international seminar on the Middle East. Feb. 1992. Authors: Drs. Smith, Kagedan & Millward
Within the broader background of the historic enmities between the various nationalities that made up the former Yugoslavia, Mr. Hamilton analyses the reasons for the failure of the European Community in dealing with the increasing violence. The author concludes that the best hope for peace lies with the United Nations, not the EC. Dec. 1991. Author: Mr. Wm. Hamilton
In the midst of the increasing violence due to political transition, how is President de Klerk dealing with the intelligence services which have traditionally had strong input into the decision-making process of government? Nov. 1991. Author: Dr. R. Henderson
Dr. Kagedan examines two factors that will determine whether the new structure of the former Soviet Union will be a confederation or a diverse group of new states: the crumbling economy and rising nationalism. Nov. 1991. Author: Dr. Allan Kagedan
Does the voluntary capitulation of Columbia's most wanted narco-terrorist, Pablo Emilio Escobar Gaviria, spell a victory for the Columbian government or is it simply a sign that terrorism works? Oct. 1991. Author: Dr. G. (Tim) Smith
With the end of the Gulf War, there is tacit acceptance of a responsibility on the part of the coalition members—particularly the USA— to bring resources to bear on the Arab-Israeli-Palestinian dispute. What are the chances that this will, in fact, occur? Sept. 1991. Author: Dr. W. Millward
Historical parallels are of limited use in trying to determine the direction of recent events in the Soviet Union, set in motion by Gorbachev's policy of perestroika. Three principal options are explored here: a reversion to authoritarianism, a coup and a full-scale revolution. July 1991. Author: Dr. B. Harasymiw
At the end of the Gulf War, what new strategic arrangements can be put in place in the region to prevent a repetition of the recent round of hostilities? June 1991. Author: Dr. W. Millward
President de Klerk has a narrow choice of security options to prevent the derailing of negotiations for political reform in South Africa. In this third of a three-part study, the author posits two basic options for de Klerk to prevent the country from sliding into endemic violence and civil conflict. March 1991. Author: Dr. R. Henderson
A review of the prospects for social and political reconstruction in Iraq and the region. Assuming an allied forces victory and that Saddam Hussein survives, what are the most likely scenarios in the near-term for Iraq and the affected region? Feb. 1991. Author: Dr. W. Millward
The second of three parts. Despite efforts at law and order , de Klerk's emergency powers appear to have been ineffective against the mounting violence in South Africa. The author traces various types of violence in that country — both perpetrators and victims — in an effort to sketch out the factions competing for power in a country on the verge of unprecedented political upheaval. Dec. 1990. Author: Dr. R. Henderson
The paper outlines the historical and cultural parameters which conditioned Iraqi behaviour leading to its invasion of Kuwait, and traces the Arab worlds initial reaction. Nov. 1990. Author: Dr. W. Millward
The first of three on de Klerk's political initiatives aimed at a peaceful solution to the country's racial conflicts, and the opposition by political and racial extremists. This first article focuses on de Klerk's definition of law and order , which many observers have interpreted at best as a reinforcement of the status quo, and at worst, a retrenchment of conservative values. Aug. 1990. Author: Dr. Robert Henderson
Following the collapse of the East European communist régimes in 1989, their intelligence services were either disbanded or restructured. The author examines the future options for their intelligence officers: do they pose a threat to Western countries? July 1990. Author: Dr. Robert Henderson
The final in a series of three papers on the Soviet Union, this issue answers three fundamental questions about Gorbachev: Is he strictly a pragmatist? Is he a Marxist-Leninist? How committed is he to perestroika? June 1990. Author: Dr. B. Harasymiw
The author looks at recent Soviet press interviews with senior KGB officers to determine how they are adapting to perestroika. Their views indicate an expanding rather than shrinking role for the KGB in the reform processes launched by Gorbachev. February 1990. Author: Dr. B. Harasymiw
An examination of Gorbachev's thinking, especially as it relates to perestroika in a Marxist-Leninist context. The analysis is based on a series of published articles and speeches by Gorbachev himself, especially a lengthy article in Pravda on 29 November 1989. The first in a three-part series by the author on events in the Soviet Union. January 1990. Author: Dr. B. Harasymiw
The views expressed herein are those of the author, who may be contacted by writing to :
CSIS P.O.Box 9732 Postal Station T Ottawa, Ontario K1G 4G4 FAX: (613) 842-1312
ISSN 1192-277X
Catalogue JS73-1/36
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